“The blatant pursuit of industrial development by the countries to become economically stronger has made them unmindful of serious side effects of such a development on human life. We exploited our energy resources to achieve the development without thinking of the composition of the energy mix that would have been friendly to our planet. The consequences are posing serious threats to our own wellbeing. Now we are trying to find ways for the course correction.”

Before onset of industrialization, the world had a climate free from impact of greenhouse gases, planet was safe, nature was unexploited, and the environment was free from pollution. But probably, these things were not sufficient to meet humans’ ambitions and provide them satisfaction. The human community was looking for something more in terms of prosperity, ease of life, level of comfort, and more. With this, started the industrial revolution which spanned from around 1750 till about 1850. Just after industrial revolution, greenhouse gas emission started showing its presence globally in 1860. The energy related global emission of carbon di oxide (CO2), a major greenhouse gas, reached a level of 2 billion tonnes per annum in 1900 and 6 billion tonnes per annum in 1950.

The period from 1950 till now saw rapid global economic development underpinned by faster industrial growth. The world GDP climbed from approximately USD 1 trillion in 1950 to USD 101 trillion in 2022 i.e. at a compounded annual average growth of 6.6%. The industrial development that led to this economic development needed tremendous amount of energy. In order to meet the huge energy demand, countries exploited energy sources becoming unmindful of its impact on climate change. The energy mix predominantly consisted of fossil fuels, which emit CO2 when burnt. Consequently, energy related global CO2 emission steeply increased from 6 billion tonnes per annum in 1950 to 37 billion tonnes per annum in 2022 at a compounded annual growth of 2.6%. This shows a direct correlation between the scale of economic development and CO2 emission level.

The impact on climate change is perceptible in global average temperature rise of 1.2 ◦C at present from pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels. This level of global temperature rise has put serious threat to the safety of the planet. As per World Meteorological Organization, the heat wave conditions in 2022 claimed more than 15000 lives in various parts of Europe-Spain, Germany, United Kingdom, France and Portugal. The number of extremely hot days in a year on global basis at present has increased twice that in 1980s. Other extreme weather events such as flood, drought, wildfire, etc have impacted the planet in their own way.  If determined and effective steps are not taken by the governments worldwide to limit the global warming level, the planet might see disastrous consequences in future.  

Going forward, the average global temperature will be 1.5 ◦C above the pre-industrial levels in 2030 as per International Energy Agency (IEA). If the present energy consumption pattern dominated by fossil fuels continues, global warming is likely to reach 2.0 ◦C with respect to pre-industrial levels in 2050, which would pose serious threats to the climate. It is this concern on climate change that led to adoption of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) in 1992 followed by Paris Agreement in 2015. The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 ◦C, preferably to 1.5 ◦C, compared to pre-industrial levels.

To achieve the goal of Paris Agreement, countries aim to achieve net zero CO2 emission by 2050. In order to achieve net zero CO2 emission by 2050, the global energy consumption pattern has to change drastically from a fossil dominated to non-fossil dominated through clean energy transition. At present, approximately 80% of the primary energy supply comes from fossil fuels (oil, natural gas and coal) and about 20% from non-fossil sources (nuclear and renewables). As per IEA, if net zero CO2 emission has to be achieved by 2050, over 80% of the primary energy supply will come from non-fossil sources and just under 20% from fossil sources in 2050 (Table 1). Even such a smaller use of fossil fuels shall be accompanied by CO2 emission reduction technology of Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS).

Table 1: Global Energy Mix Pattern

	Share of Energy Source in Global Energy Mix (%)
Energy Source	Present	20501
Solar	1	23
Wind	1	16
Hydro	2	6
Bioenergy	11	19
Other Renewables	1	6
Total Renewables	16	70
Nuclear	5	12
Total Non-fossil Sources	21	82
Natural Gas (Unabated)	23	3
Natural Gas with CCUS	0	5
Oil	30	7
Coal (Unabated)	26	0
Coal with CCUS	0	3
Total Fossil Sources	79	18
Total Energy Supply	100	100

Notes:

1. If Net Zero CO2 Emission has to be achieved by 2050.

Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2022

However, there are some key challenges to achieve the goal of 1.5 ◦C stabilization in global average temperature. One of those challenges is lack of willingness and preparedness on the part of several countries to set a binding target to achieve that goal. While several countries or groups such as United States, European Union, Canada, Japan and Republic of Korea, among others, have set a target to achieve net zero CO2 emission by 2050, several others have set target to achieve that goal much later. China and India together share approximately 40% of the total energy related global CO2 emissions. However, they both have set a target much later than 2050 to achieve carbon neutrality-China in 2060 and India in 2070.   

Another major challenge to achieve the goal of 1.5 ◦C stabilization is the availability of the finances for the investment in clean energy system i.e. low CO2 emission energy system. Today, annual investment in clean energy system is approximately USD 1.7 trillion, which is too less to meet the climate related goals. This has to increase to the tune of USD 4.5 trillion in 2030 in order to achieve net zero CO2 emission by 2050. Realization of such a steep rise in the investment would probably be an uphill task.   Time will tell whether and how the countries can meet the challenges to make the planet safer and climate friendly through sustainable development based on the use of clean energy. Let’s hope they can achieve the goal through a high degree of mutual co-operation in terms of finances and technological diffusion.

About Author: Satyendra Kumar Singh, B.Tech. (Chemical Technology) + M.B.A., is proprietor of Satsha Management Services-an award winning design engineering and management consulting company (www.satshamanagement.com). He possesses approximately 30 years’ experience in engineering consultancy in process and energy industries. Satyendra has authored several papers on energy, business and management, which have been published in some renowned journals/magazines such as ‘Chemical Engineering’, ‘Process Worldwide’, ‘Modern Manufacturing India’. He may be reached at satyendra.singh@satshamanagement.com, Ph. +919811293605.

Today, the world is facing one of the most critical problems i.e. global warming caused by excessive use of fossil fuels as source of energy. Carbon di oxide (CO2), the major greenhouse gas, is released into atmosphere when fossil fuels are burnt to produce energy. The greenhouse gases lead to global warming. Today, 37 billion tonnes of CO2 is emitted from energy related use of fossil fuels. Together with other greenhouse gases including Methane, total energy related greenhouse gas emission amounts to 41 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent. Global warming level at present is 1.2 degree Celsius relative to pre-industrial levels, which is likely to increase to 1.5 degree Celsius in 2030. Paris Climate Agreement has set a target to limit global warming to well below 2 degree Celsius and preferably 1.5 degree Celsius relative to pre-industrial levels. If global warming has to be limited to 1.5 degree Celsius after 2030, CO2 emission will have to be reduced from present level eventually leading to net zero CO2 emission by 2050.    

At present, global energy-mix is predominantly fossil fuels based wherein fossil fuels (oil, coal and natural gas) constitute approximately 80% of primary energy sources and non-fossil fuels (solar, wind, hydroelectric, nuclear and bioenergy) just about 20%. If net zero emission has to be achieved by 2050, the share of fossil fuels in primary energy-mix has to be reduced to just over 20% and non-fossil fuels just under 80% by then. Even such use of fossil fuels shall be accompanied with carbon reduction method known as carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) as much as possible.

Low-carbon hydrogen can play a significant role in CO2 emission reduction and hence achieving net zero emission by 2050. It is likely to account for 6% of total final energy consumption in 2050. It’s potential application as source of energy will be in transportation sector, industries and residential and commercial buildings. To that extent, low-carbon hydrogen shall replace fossil fuels and hence contribute to CO2 emission reduction. In industrial applications, it has potential to replace natural gas and coal. It can replace natural gas or coal in chemical industries such as ammonia and methanol, refineries and steel industry. In transportation sector, it has potential to replace natural gas and oil. In residential and commercial buildings, it can replace oil and natural gas in heating applications.

Low carbon hydrogen can be produced in two ways. One, from natural gas by steam reforming process using CCUS technology. The hydrogen produced by this method is usually called blue hydrogen. Two, by electrolysis of water using electricity produced from renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, hydroelectric, etc. The hydrogen produced in this process is commonly known as green hydrogen.

Choice of blue hydrogen or green hydrogen depends upon the cost competitiveness of one vis-à-vis other. While cost of production of blue hydrogen majorly depends upon natural gas price, cost of production of green hydrogen is largely influenced by renewable electricity cost and electrolyzer cost. As per International Energy Agency (IEA), at a natural gas price of USD 10 per million BTU, levelized cost of production of blue hydrogen is USD 2.5-3.0 per kg. On the other hand, levelized cost of production of green hydrogen is in the range of USD 3-4.5 per kg depending upon the renewable electricity cost and electrolyzer cost. Lower end of the range is applicable in the markets where solar or wind electricity cost is less and electrolyzers are cheaper such as China. The higher end is applicable in the markets such as Europe where renewable electricity and electrolyzers are relatively costlier.  In between are the markets such as middle east where renewable electricity cost and electrolyzer cost are in between the two extreme ends.  

It’s due to technology and cost constraints that the share of low-carbon hydrogen (green or blue) in total hydrogen production is still negligible. Today, approximately 95 million tonnes per annum (MMTPA) hydrogen is produced globally, out of which only 0.7 MMTPA is blue hydrogen and under 0.1 MMTPA is green, remaining all i.e. 99% is conventional hydrogen whose production involves high CO2 emission. The cost of production of conventional hydrogen i.e. hydrogen from natural gas by steam reforming process without CCUS (also sometimes called grey hydrogen) is significantly less than that of blue hydrogen or green hydrogen. However, with technological developments and electrolyzer manufacturing reaching the scale capacity, cost of production of green hydrogen is expected to come down in future-to USD 1.5 per kg by 2030 and USD 1.0 per kg by 2050 potentially making it competitive vis-à-vis blue hydrogen.  

About Author: Satyendra Kumar Singh, B.Tech. (Chemical Technology) + M.B.A., is proprietor of Satsha Management Services-an award winning design engineering and management consulting company (www.satshamanagement.com). He possesses approximately 30 years’ experience in engineering consultancy in process and energy industries. Satyendra has authored several papers on energy, business and management, which have been published in some renowned journals/magazines such as ‘Chemical Engineering’, ‘Process Worldwide’, ‘Modern Manufacturing India’. He may be reached at satyendra.singh@satshamanagement.com, Ph. +919811293605.