“The blatant pursuit of industrial development by the countries to become economically stronger has made them unmindful of serious side effects of such a development on human life. We exploited our energy resources to achieve the development without thinking of the composition of the energy mix that would have been friendly to our planet. The consequences are posing serious threats to our own wellbeing. Now we are trying to find ways for the course correction.”
Before onset of industrialization, the world had a climate free from impact of greenhouse gases, planet was safe, nature was unexploited, and the environment was free from pollution. But probably, these things were not sufficient to meet humans’ ambitions and provide them satisfaction. The human community was looking for something more in terms of prosperity, ease of life, level of comfort, and more. With this, started the industrial revolution which spanned from around 1750 till about 1850. Just after industrial revolution, greenhouse gas emission started showing its presence globally in 1860. The energy related global emission of carbon di oxide (CO2), a major greenhouse gas, reached a level of 2 billion tonnes per annum in 1900 and 6 billion tonnes per annum in 1950.
The period from 1950 till now saw rapid global economic development underpinned by faster industrial growth. The world GDP climbed from approximately USD 1 trillion in 1950 to USD 101 trillion in 2022 i.e. at a compounded annual average growth of 6.6%. The industrial development that led to this economic development needed tremendous amount of energy. In order to meet the huge energy demand, countries exploited energy sources becoming unmindful of its impact on climate change. The energy mix predominantly consisted of fossil fuels, which emit CO2 when burnt. Consequently, energy related global CO2 emission steeply increased from 6 billion tonnes per annum in 1950 to 37 billion tonnes per annum in 2022 at a compounded annual growth of 2.6%. This shows a direct correlation between the scale of economic development and CO2 emission level.
The impact on climate change is perceptible in global average temperature rise of 1.2 ◦C at present from pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels. This level of global temperature rise has put serious threat to the safety of the planet. As per World Meteorological Organization, the heat wave conditions in 2022 claimed more than 15000 lives in various parts of Europe-Spain, Germany, United Kingdom, France and Portugal. The number of extremely hot days in a year on global basis at present has increased twice that in 1980s. Other extreme weather events such as flood, drought, wildfire, etc have impacted the planet in their own way. If determined and effective steps are not taken by the governments worldwide to limit the global warming level, the planet might see disastrous consequences in future.
Going forward, the average global temperature will be 1.5 ◦C above the pre-industrial levels in 2030 as per International Energy Agency (IEA). If the present energy consumption pattern dominated by fossil fuels continues, global warming is likely to reach 2.0 ◦C with respect to pre-industrial levels in 2050, which would pose serious threats to the climate. It is this concern on climate change that led to adoption of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) in 1992 followed by Paris Agreement in 2015. The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 ◦C, preferably to 1.5 ◦C, compared to pre-industrial levels.
To achieve the goal of Paris Agreement, countries aim to achieve net zero CO2 emission by 2050. In order to achieve net zero CO2 emission by 2050, the global energy consumption pattern has to change drastically from a fossil dominated to non-fossil dominated through clean energy transition. At present, approximately 80% of the primary energy supply comes from fossil fuels (oil, natural gas and coal) and about 20% from non-fossil sources (nuclear and renewables). As per IEA, if net zero CO2 emission has to be achieved by 2050, over 80% of the primary energy supply will come from non-fossil sources and just under 20% from fossil sources in 2050 (Table 1). Even such a smaller use of fossil fuels shall be accompanied by CO2 emission reduction technology of Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS).
Table 1: Global Energy Mix Pattern
| Share of Energy Source in Global Energy Mix (%) | ||
| Energy Source | Present | 20501 |
| Solar | 1 | 23 |
| Wind | 1 | 16 |
| Hydro | 2 | 6 |
| Bioenergy | 11 | 19 |
| Other Renewables | 1 | 6 |
| Total Renewables | 16 | 70 |
| Nuclear | 5 | 12 |
| Total Non-fossil Sources | 21 | 82 |
| Natural Gas (Unabated) | 23 | 3 |
| Natural Gas with CCUS | 0 | 5 |
| Oil | 30 | 7 |
| Coal (Unabated) | 26 | 0 |
| Coal with CCUS | 0 | 3 |
| Total Fossil Sources | 79 | 18 |
| Total Energy Supply | 100 | 100 |
Notes:
1. If Net Zero CO2 Emission has to be achieved by 2050.
Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2022
However, there are some key challenges to achieve the goal of 1.5 ◦C stabilization in global average temperature. One of those challenges is lack of willingness and preparedness on the part of several countries to set a binding target to achieve that goal. While several countries or groups such as United States, European Union, Canada, Japan and Republic of Korea, among others, have set a target to achieve net zero CO2 emission by 2050, several others have set target to achieve that goal much later. China and India together share approximately 40% of the total energy related global CO2 emissions. However, they both have set a target much later than 2050 to achieve carbon neutrality-China in 2060 and India in 2070.
Another major challenge to achieve the goal of 1.5 ◦C stabilization is the availability of the finances for the investment in clean energy system i.e. low CO2 emission energy system. Today, annual investment in clean energy system is approximately USD 1.7 trillion, which is too less to meet the climate related goals. This has to increase to the tune of USD 4.5 trillion in 2030 in order to achieve net zero CO2 emission by 2050. Realization of such a steep rise in the investment would probably be an uphill task. Time will tell whether and how the countries can meet the challenges to make the planet safer and climate friendly through sustainable development based on the use of clean energy. Let’s hope they can achieve the goal through a high degree of mutual co-operation in terms of finances and technological diffusion.
About Author: Satyendra Kumar Singh, B.Tech. (Chemical Technology) + M.B.A., is proprietor of Satsha Management Services-an award winning design engineering and management consulting company (www.satshamanagement.com). He possesses approximately 30 years’ experience in engineering consultancy in process and energy industries. Satyendra has authored several papers on energy, business and management, which have been published in some renowned journals/magazines such as ‘Chemical Engineering’, ‘Process Worldwide’, ‘Modern Manufacturing India’. He may be reached at satyendra.singh@satshamanagement.com, Ph. +919811293605.
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